Of Booms and Bubbles

Entering Pokémon’s 30th year, even mainstream news outlets can’t help but remark on the market’s insatiable appetite for new TCG products – a ballooning international phenomenon many believe is due to burst. But how sure should one be of such a financial fiasco? Join me for a quick dip into the history of TCG bubbles as we seek out lessons to help TCG Leaders ensure their own collections don’t end up in the dustbin of gaming history.

I encountered my first TCG graveyard in the late 90s. At the back of “All Star Games”, past rows of glass cases shielding overpriced Magic cards ($300 for Black Lotus!), sat a white-wire basket filled to the brim with dead games: casualties of The First Great TCG Bubble. At that moment, it was easy to be pessimistic about the future of all TCGs. But despite the calamity, MTG survived (albeit with several close calls), and soon after multimedia darlings Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh! emerged, going on to make indelible marks on gaming culture and join MTG as part of what is now known as “The Big Three”.

In “Bubble Investing: Learning from History” (2015), Yale’s Professor Goetzmann defines bubbles simply as “a crash after a boom”, and offers three salient points: not all booms go bad, the frequency of financial bubbles is rarer than investors’ perception of them, and placing too much weight on avoiding bubbles does more harm than good for investors in those markets. While TCG secondary market assets are different beasts from other investment vehicles, parallels can be drawn; after all, despite those youthful misgivings about TCGs, it would’ve been wiser to buy all the Black Lotuses my parents
could afford!

Indeed, the Big Three continued to thrive past occasional bubbles. The New York Times’ 2001 article “Pokemon’s House of Cards” covers one such event, interviewing tweens lamenting the massive devaluation of their Pokémon TCG portfolios. Amongst them was Alex, a 12-year old rueful that his “original set” of Pokémon valued at $400 plummeted
by 50%…

At the onset of 2026, the price for such a collection could soar into tens of thousands of pounds (depending of course on condition, foils, etc). Let’s hope Alex did not give
in to the fear Professor Goetzmann warned about by liquidating his 10,000 card collection before appreciating!

The investor disclaimer of “past performance is not indicative of future results” applies to performances both positive and negative. Part of cultivating a healthy TCG career is being aware that card price fluctuation is but one facet of effective TCG market evaluation.

Tips on thriving in TCG spaces

Bubble or not, to persevere as a serious TCG trader and collector, consider these points to guide you.

Hype dies, community drives

In MTG, being engaged with fan-favourite formats like Commander or Premodern would have pointed you to profitable opportunities, while buying into pure market hype could have resulted in losing your shirt. Reddit’s “r/mtgfinance” demonstrated this fact when a user recently confessed a 20% loss on a £18,700 preorder of MTG’s Spiderman crossover!

Culture matters

Multimedia juggernaut Pokémon dominates the TCG landscape, and competitors such as MTG, Lorcana and One Piece look to emulate their playbook. However, any collectible with an undeniable impact on mainstream culture stands a chance of retaining value. Just as Action Comics #1 or an inverted Jenny stamp are recognised beyond their communities, TCG icons like Black Lotus, Charizard, and Blue-Eyes White Dragon stand to maintain mainstream luster as well.

Clear vision, clear goals

You’re far more likely to succeed as a long-term TCG collector by deciding on a plan. Binders of random cards have less impact than ones with specific themes or aesthetics. Honing in on a narrower band of cards ensures you can effectively manage a budget as you build collections that both satisfy you and potentially appreciate with time.